2010 Emmy Predictions

Sun, 29 Aug 2010 12:47:36 GMT

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the 2010 emmy awards

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2010 EMMY AWARDS CEREMONY

Hosted by Jimmy Fallon on Sunday, August 29, on NBC

PRESENTERS: Will Arnett, Stephen Colbert, Claire Danes, Ted Danson, Emily Deschanel, Edie Falco, Tina Fey, Nathan Fillion, Laurence Fishburne,

Ricky Gervais, Lauren Graham, Jon Hamm, Mariska Hargitay, Neil Patrick Harris, January Jones, Kim Kardashian, Boris Kodjoe, John Krasinski, LL Cool J, John Lithgow,

Ann-Margret, Julianna Margulies, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Joel McHale, Christopher Meloni, Matthew Morrison, Stephen Moyer, Anna Paquin, Eva Longoria Parker,

Jim Parsons, Matthew Perry, Amy Poehler, Jeff Probst, Keri Russell, Tom Selleck, Alexander Skarsgard, Maura Tierney, Blair Underwood, Sofia Vergara, Betty White

CEREMONY ORDER OF PRESENTATION:

A01 - Supporting Actor Comedy
A02 - Comedy Writing
A03 - Supporting Actress Comedy
A04 - Comedy Directing
A05 - Actor Comedy
A06 - Actress Comedy
A07 - Reality Competition Program
A08 - Drama Writing
A09 - Supporting Actor Drama
A10 - Supporting Actress Drama
A11 - Drama Actor
A12 - Drama Directing
A13 - Drama Actress
A14 - Variety, Music or Comedy Special Writing
A15 - Variety, Music or Comedy Special Directing
A16 - Variety, Music or Comedy Series
A17 - Supporting Actress Miniseries
A18 - Supporting Actor Miniseries
A19 - Miniseries Writing
A20 - Miniseries Actress
A21 - Miniseries Directing
A22 - Miniseries Actor
A23 - Miniseries
A24 - Made for TV Movie
A25 - Bob Hope Humanitarian Award
A26 - Comedy Series
A27 - Drama Series

comedy series

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. MODERN FAMILY ("Pilot" & "Starry Night", "Fizbo" & "Coal Digger", "Come Fly with Me" & "Fears") -- projected winner

2. 30 ROCK ("Dealbreakers Talk Show #0001" & "Black Light Attack", "Anna Howard Shaw Day" & "Don Geiss, America & Hope", "The Moms" & "Emmanuelle Goes to Dinosaur Land")

3. GLEE ("Pilot" & "Preggers", "Wheels" & "Sectionals", "The Power of Madonna" & "Home")

4. CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM ("Vehicular Fellatio" & "The Reunion", "Denise Handicapped" & "The Table Read", "The Bare Midriff" & "Seinfeld")

5. THE OFFICE ("Gossip" & "Murder", "Niagara, Parts 1 & 2", "The Lover" & "Secret Santa")

6. NURSE JACKIE ("Pilot" & "Tiny Bubbles", "Ring Finger" & "Health Care & Cinema", "Apple Bong" & "Monkey Bits)

Commentary -- I am not really sure why people are having trouble predicting the winner of this category, many of them unfortunately choosing the wrong one. Don't overthink the situation!. In the same year that three-time victor "30 Rock" had a topsy-turvy season in terms of quality, the producers and crew of "Modern Family" created an amazingly funny comedy that not only is a throwback to traditional family favorites but jumps into lots of new frontiers as well. It feels fresh and new but comfortably familiar all wrapped up in a fun 30-minute package. Most of the "30 Rock" episodes chosen for the judging panel are good ones, but I find it hard to believe that they will be rewarded yet again for a season that was creatively off balance. Looking at other tea leaves, you can also see that the show doesn't have nearly the same Emmy love, with far fewer nominations in the acting and writing categories. On the other hand, five out of six "Modern Family" adult actors were nominated, plus the series received very important nominations in other categories. I would be shocked if it does not win the top Emmy. Most pop culture fans who do not follow Emmy history will certainly be surprised when "Glee" loses this race. It has all of the industry buzz, plus major Golden Globe and SAG victories. The Emmys are much different, however, and I remember other buzzy, hour-long shows ("Desperate Housewives", "Ugly Betty") that piled up the nominations but couldn't win the comedy series award. The only one that accomplished this was "Ally McBeal", but it was written and produced by one of Emmy's all-time favorites, David E. Kelley. Even if voters were seriously considering "Glee", the show's producers submitted only 3 great episodes and 3 mediocre ones. I would not mind at all if "Curb Your Enthusiasm" finally won this category. It doesn't have a directing or writing nomination, so that would be a huge uphill battle that only one show ("Friends") was able to ever accomplish. Nobody thinks that "The Office" is still producing the same type of quality work that it offered its first few seasons. Showtime should be very proud to have "Nurse Jackie" among the nominees.

comedy lead actress

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Edie Falco of Nurse Jackie -- ("Pilot") -- projected winner

2. Tina Fey of 30 Rock ("Dealbreakers Talk Show #0001")

3. Toni Collette of United States of Tara ("Torando!")

4. Amy Poehler of Parks & Recreation ("Telethon")

5. Lea Michele of Glee ("Sectionals")

6. Julia Louis-Dreyfus of New Adventures of Old Christine ("I Love What You Do for Me")

Commentary -- I had a pretty good feeling Falco would win this award way back when it was announced by Showtime that she would be starring in a new comedic drama. She certainly doesn't disappoint, especially in the premiere episode, in which the audience gets a real sense of who she is and why she is one of the hospital's best nurses. Voters will also discover a gifted comedic actress with some very funny moments as well as a couple of heroic ones. Falco is so good she even carried the show almost by herself into a somewhat unexpected nomination for best comedy series. The top comedic performance in this category is once again given by Fey. I think it might be her best submission yet, with great physical comedy and one-liners throughout as she attempts to launch her own talk show. In a different year, she probably would have won her second Emmy in this category. Collette certainly shows range in her episode, especially in the momentous basement scene in which she lets loose all of her alter egos within a short period of time. Unfortunately, for all of the buildup to that moment, I thought the writing and directing let her down a good bit with the pacing and delivery of the scene. It felt forced, flat and underwhelming. My own personal choice to win an Emmy (any Emmy) would be Amy Poehler, who added extra layers to her small-town character this season and developed her into one of television's funniest people. I was certainly fearful about whether that could ever happen, based on the first few episodes last spring, but the second season was outstanding in just about every way. As a bonus, she even wrote this particular episode, set during a local TV telethon in which everything goes wrong throughout the night. If Michele wins this Emmy, it would strictly be because of the frenzy for her show, "Glee," and the one big performance toward the end. Her "acting" moments on this episode were few and far between -- and certainly not funny in any way. I am glad Louis-Dreyfus has two Emmys already, because her last shot for this unfairly promoted and scheduled series will not do it for her again.

comedy lead actor

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Jim Parsons of Big Bang Theory ("The Pants Alternative") -- projected winner

2. Alec Baldwin of 30 Rock ("Don Geiss, America & Hope")

3. Tony Shalhoub of Monk ("Mr. Monk & the End, Parts 1 & 2")

4. Larry David of Curb Your Enthusiasm ("Seinfeld")

5. Steve Carell of The Office ("The Cover Up")

6. Matthew Morrison of Glee ("Mash Up")

Commentary -- I agree with many people that Tony Shalhoub gives the most complete and impressive overall performance of this category's nominees. It does have a little humor, but is mostly dramatic and probably contains the most crying and coughing of any comedy submission (maybe ever). The first hour is very interesting and makes you want to know what happens next, which is unfortunately the second hour and its poorly written and plotted conclusion to the series. With all of that in mind, I just can't bring myself to think that Emmy voters would want to elevate him into a pantheon with the only other men to ever win this category four times (Carroll O'Connor, Michael J. Fox and Kelsey Grammer). Jim Parsons easily gives the funniest performance of the group, with nice ensemble work, individual one-on-one scenes with each character and a drunken conclusion accepting an award no less. Voters haven't warmed too much to "The Big Bang Theory," but I hope they will appreciate the all-out comedy in this particular episode. I am projecting him to take home his first Emmy this year. I have Alec Baldwin in second place because I think it is the most complete performance he has submitted to Emmy judges yet. It doesn't have the gimmicks of previous winning submissions, but has a lot going for it and him. There is a strong possibility they aren't quite done with rewarding him yet, even more so in a year when practically nobody is predicting him to win again. Larry David is also very funny in his season finale and even gets a couple of tender moments trying to win back his ex-wife. Steve Carell submits an incredibly weak episode this year that finds him off-screen as much as on. Speaking of weak, if I was ranking all 37 acting episodes in the comedy categories, I would most likely rank Matthew Morrison's at No. 37 (mainly due to the awful rapping).

comedy supporting actress

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Jane Lynch of Glee ("The Power of Madonna") -- projected winner

2. Jane Krakowski of 30 Rock ("Black Light Attack")

3. Julie Bowen of Modern Family ("My Funky Valentine")

4. Holland Taylor of Two and a Half Men ("Give Me Your Thumb")

5. Kristen Wiig of Saturday Night Live ("James Franco")

6. Sofia Vergara of "Modern Family" ("Not in My House")

Commentary -- Jane Lynch wins the Emmy for this category within the first 3 minutes of the Madonna-themed episode and then just keeps adding on funny scene after funny scene. She also gets to star in a shot-for-shot remake of the famous "Vogue" music video. Easy prediction and a well-deserved victory after many years of great comedic performances. I imagine actresses over 35 on this judging panel will be enthralled by Jane Krakowski's episode, in which she faces the perils and horrors of moving from the ingenue to mother stage of an acting career. She has so many funny moments, it is kind of a shame she will probably never win for this role. Julie Bowen gives a charming performance on a Valentine's Day themed episode where she and her husband go on a date and pretend to pick up each other in a bar. It's a nice blend of sparkling dialogue and physical humor. Holland Taylor has already received several nominations for this character but no wins so far. I liked some of her previous submissions much more than this one, which is somewhat on the dry humor side rather than physical. Kristin Wiig has only two moments on her episode which might appeal to voters (the Lawrence Welk parody and her impersonation of Kate Hepburn), but it can't top the other ladies in this category. Sofia Vergara made a major error on her episode choice, in which she has very little to do other than react to a stuffed dog butler in her home. She has such a high industry buzz right now, a win could have been possible with the right choice.

comedy supporting actor

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Eric Stonestreet of Modern Family ("Fizbo") -- projected winner

2. Ty Burrell of Modern Family ("Up All Night"

3. Chris Colfer of Glee ("Laryngitis")

4. Neil Patrick Harris of How I Met Your Mother ("Girls vs. Suits")

5. Jon Cryer of Two and a Half Men ("Captain Terry's Spray-On Hair")

6. Jesse Tyler Ferguson of Modern Family ("Family Portrait")

Commentary -- Perplexing! It's a category filled with possible winners, depending on the tastes and preferences of the judging panel. That makes it incredibly hard to predict this year. After watching all of the submitted episodes, my best guess and gut feeling is that Eric Stonestreet wins the Emmy. In his episode, he goes back to his past to wear his old clown outfit (Fizbo) for his nephew's birthday party. Nothing overwhelmingly funny happens that implores the voters to reward him, but the best scene is when he and Mitchell are at the gas station. Stonestreet also has a couple of good moments shared with his co-stars on their episodes. If voters watched "Modern Family" throughout the season, they may want to vote for Ty Burrell. I don't personally see how he gathers votes based strictly on his submission, but it has more of a complete start-to-finish storyline among the three nominees from this series. The hospital scene wanting all the attention and at the end with the young ladies in the next room were the best. I was truly blown away by Chris Colfer's episode choice, in which he has some funny moments throughout the first half, some serious scenes with his father and an amazing performance from the musical "Gypsy." He definitely has a chance to win, but somehow I think his age (he would be the youngest winner in this category by far) works against him with voters. It could be an extremely tight race between Stonestreet (1), Burrell (2) and Colfer (3). Neil Patrick Harris continues his tradition of submitting poor episodes for the Emmy judges. In fact, I was shocked at how far downhill the writing has gone for this once-great show (almost Disney Channel comedy level writing at this stage). He does perform an Emmy-nominated song at the end of the show, but I don't think it will be enough. I actually think Jon Cryer has a minor shot at repeating his win, because his episode once again has a nice blend of dialogue with Charlie Sheen and some physical humor. It isn't nearly as funny as last year's episode, though. Poor Jesse Tyler Ferguson doesn't have a prayer with no character arc or depth to play in his episode (his fear of a bird — really?) and the better performances from his own co-stars.

comedy guest actress

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Betty White of Saturday Night Live ("Betty White") -- projected winner

2. Tina Fey of Saturday Night Live ("Tina Fey")

3. Kristin Chenoweth of Glee ("The Rhodes Not Taken")

4. Elaine Stritch of 30 Rock ("The Moms")

5. Christine Baranski of Big Bang Theory ("The Maternal Congruence")

6. Kathryn Joosten of Desperate Housewives ("The Chase")

7. Jane Lynch of Two and a Half Men ("818-JKLPUZO")

Commentary -- This Emmy Award was practically won weeks before the episode even aired! Most everybody was excited about Betty White hosting "Saturday Night Live" when it was first considered and then announced, but she surpassed all of the lofty expectations with the help of the writers, director, cast, returning SNL stars and her own funny, funny, funny performance. It was truly one of the most incredible performances I have ever seen on SNL or any variety series! Along with White, this category is completely loaded down with past Emmy winners in every spot except for Jane Lynch (who will most likely pick up an Emmy for "Glee" in another category). Tina Fey won this same category last year for a return trip to her SNL roots. She again gets to play Sarah Palin (as she did last year with her win) plus quite a few other characters in various sketches. The brownie husband commercial alone might sway the voters, but Betty White is just too much to overcome. Kristin Chenoweth has the perfect role of a former glee club star and does an especially good job throughout her episode (both acting and singing). Elaine Stritch always elevates every moment of her time on "30 Rock", and this time is no exception. She has also won an Emmy for this role, but her screentime is more limited than for her winning year. While I love Christine Baranski as Leonard's mother on "The Big Bang Theory", I thought her performance last year was better written and developed. Both Kathryn Joosten and Jane Lynch are good but must bring up the rear for this overloaded category this year.

comedy guest actor

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Neil Patrick Harris of Glee ("Dream On") -- projected winner

2. Fred Willard of Modern Family ("Travels with Scout")

3. Jon Hamm of 30 Rock ("Emmanuelle Goes to Dinosaur Land")

4. Will Arnett of 30 Rock ("Into the Crevasse")

5. Mike O'Malley of Glee ("Wheels")

6. Eli Wallach of Nurse Jackie ("Chicken Soup")

Commentary -- This is an easy pick with Neil Patrick Harris winning his first ever Emmy Award after 20+ years on television. He has more than double the screentime than his competitors, gets to play the comedic villain (all that's missing is the twirling moustache), and performs twice with an almost comic wink throughout both songs. He doesn't really provide laugh-out-loud moments, but there is probably nobody alive that could have brought this performance to this role on this show (many were excited about him as a guest star even before the episode aired!). I love Fred Willard in just about any program or film, and this perfectly-cast character is no exception. He offers some incredibly funny one liners and a couple of touching moments as Ty Burrell's father. Jon Hamm only has an approximately two-minute scene near the beginning of the episode, and it is the single funniest performance among all of these nominees (but I don't think it is nearly enough time to actually win). Will Arnett has one of the best recurring characters on any show and gets to shine again as the nemesis of Alec Baldwin at NBC/GE. He has three funny scenes but has no real character arc this time and is basically there to move the plot forward and get in some jokes. Mike O'Malley has the best character he has ever played, but he isn't one bit funny in his scenes with Chris Colfer or in the principal's office. Eli Wallach won an Emmy decades ago and might be here more because of his veteran status than any other reason. He is certainly charming in this brief role but no Emmy this time.

comedy directing

projected order of finish #1-5...

1. Glee ("Pilot" directed by Ryan Murphy) -- projected winner

2. Modern Family ("Pilot" directed by Jason Winer)

3. Glee ("Wheels" directed by Paris Barclay)

4. Nurse Jackie ("Pilot" directed by Allen Coulter)

5. 30 Rock ("I Do Do" directed by Don Scardino)

comedy writing

projected order of finish #1-5...

1. Modern Family ("Pilot" written by Steven Levitan, Christopher Lloyd) -- projected winner

2. Glee ("Pilot" written by Ryan Murphy, Brian Falchuk, Ian Brennan)

3. 30 Rock ("Anna Howard Shaw Day" written by Matt Hubbard)

4. 30 Rock ("Lee Marvin vs. Derek Jeter" written by Kay Cannon, Tina Fey)

5. The Office ("Niagara" written by Greg Daniels, Mindy Kaling)

drama series

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. MAD MEN ("My Old Kentucky Home" & "The Gypsy & the Hobo", "Guy Walks into an Advertising Agency" & "Seven Twenty Three", "The Grown Ups" & "Shut the Door. Have a Seat") -- projected winner

2. DEXTER ("Dex Takes a Holiday" & "Dirty Harry", "Road Kill" & "Hungry Man", "Hello Dexter Morgan" & "The Getaway")

3. LOST ("Dr. Linus" & "Ab Aeterno", "Happily Ever After" & "The Candidate", "The End, Parts 1 & 2")

4. THE GOOD WIFE ("Pilot" & "Threesome", "Hi" & "Bang", "Fleas" & "Heart")

5. BREAKING BAD ("No Mas" & "Sunset", "One Minute" & "Fly", "Half Measures" & "Full Measure")

6. TRUE BLOOD ("Nothing but the Blood" & "Scratches", "Shake & Fingerpop" & "Never Let Me Go", "I Will Rise Up" & "Frenzy")

Commentary -- The only truly dead candidate in this race is "True Blood", which has no other major nominations and very little support to win such a big award. While "Breaking Bad" certainly has passionate supporters and has an outside shot at winning, I just don't think it can possibly get around the even bigger support for its other four competitors. Now, that takes us to some very serious discussions about four shows that could easily win for Drama Series, depending on which voters make up this panel and what they are seeking. If they want a traditional legal drama with great acting, writing and lots of polish, they will vote for "The Good Wife". If they are looking for possibly the best fantasy/character-driven drama of the past decade, plus one that probably had the highest degree of difficulty in finishing off six seasons of expectations, they might give another Emmy to "Lost". If they want to reward one of the most buzzed shows of the season, complete with two powerhouse performances by John Lithgow and Michael C. Hall, the voters will go for "Dexter". Because there are three major contenders waiting in the wings, my Emmy history book (in my head) indicates that there are just too many options to unseat a two-time winner like "Mad Men". While some of us found the third season a little slow at times, the best episodes (which were all submitted to the judges), were some of the finest hours of this past television season. Generally, a show has to take a big dip in quality OR have just one alternative for voters to rally around in order to unseat a great champ like "Mad Men". I think Matt Weiner and company win their third in a row and should be congratulated for another wonderful season.

drama lead actress

projected order of finish #1-6)...

1. Julianna Margulies of The Good Wife ("Threesome") -- projected winner

2. Kyra Sedgwick of The Closer ("Maternal Instincts")

3. Glenn Close of Damages ("Your Secrets Are Safe")

4. January Jones of Mad Men ("The Gypsy & the Hobo")

5. Mariska Hargitay of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit ("Perverted")

6. Connie Britton of Friday Night Lights ("After the Fall")

Commentary -- First of all, I want to thank the voters for getting rid of some major stars (Sally Field and Holly Hunter) who could no longer be justified with nominations based on their most recent seasons. I wish they had done the same with Mariska Hargitay, who continues to essentially receive one showcase episode each year, but whose show has had a major downfall in quality in the last few years. I don't think she really has a shot this time to win. Connie Britton is a welcome addition to the lineup this year, but she did not have one amazing episode to choose for the judges. It is a shame she did not have the opportunity to compete for one of the earlier seasons when she did have standout material. Unfortunately, I believe she is the least likely to win the Emmy. The other four ladies all have outstanding episodes, and a case can be made for each to possibly win. January Jones is amazing in her showdown with soon-to-be ex-husband Don Draper over the secrets he has hidden from her. From a show perspective, it is perfectly played as quiet and intense. Voters generally like more explosive performances in these situations (crying, shouting, throwing objects), so I wonder if they will be a little underwhelmed by her. Glenn Close cannot be discounted for another possible win after prevailing the last two years for her show. I think it is her worst submission yet, though, and there is nothing memorable about her performance in the first episode of the third season. It has way too much setup for what the producers have planned for the storyline for the remainder of the season. Kyra Sedgwick delivers her absolutely finest Emmy episode submission ever, one that gives her the opportunity for great detective work, emotional outbursts at her niece and the suspects, and just wonderful and compelling work throughout. It truly is her best chance to finally win her first Emmy Award. A win by her would not be a surprise at all and would be well-deserved. Unfortunately for Sedgwick, there is one more person in the race, and she has the full support of the industry (Golden Globe, SAG Award, TCA Award) and everything else going for her comeback to television this season. Julianna Margulies headlines the best new broadcast drama of the year and almost single-handedly pulled the show into a nomination for best drama series along with a bunch of other nods. Even though she had better episodes to submit, I don't think she stumbled at all. Her performance has lots of screentime and is strong, well-acted and memorable as she defends the eccentric founder of her law firm. Voters will be thrilled to reward her with the Emmy for the season as well as this episode.

drama lead actor

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Michael C. Hall of Dexter ("The Getaway") -- projected winner

2. Hugh Laurie of House ("Broken, Parts 1 & 2")

3. Bryan Cranston of Breaking Bad ("Full Measure")

4. Jon Hamm of Mad Men ("The Gypsy & the Hobo")

5. Matthew Fox of Lost ("The End, Parts 1 & 2")

6. Kyle Chandler of Friday Night Lights ("East of Dillon")

Commentary -- All six men deserved to be nominated, and every one of them deserves to actually win this category. That fact is abundantly true based on their incredibly well-chosen episode submissions but also for their seasons and overall contributions to their shows. It is the finest group of nominees and episodes I can remember. Analyzing the category and ranking the nominees is agonizing. Here is my best effort. Both Kyle Chandler and Matthew Fox finally get nominations after years of great work. I commend the voters for recognizing their efforts. Chandler has a couple of tremendous scenes where he is barking at players as they prepare for the first game of the season. The viewer really feels for him at the end of the episode when he has to forfeit the game due to injuries. Matthew Fox saved his best performance of the past six seasons for the series finale and has a lot of emotional scenes as well as action and drama. The episode is heavily weighted toward the ensemble, as it should be, so he is off screen for several scenes. The extended stretches without him will mean that voters probably will reward one of his competitors. I loved Jon Hamm's performance in his episode as many of his character's deep, dark secrets are exposed and discussed by his wife. It is a subtle and gripping performance that Emmy voters will probably really enjoy. I think a win by Hamm would be as much for the entire run of the season and for the development of one of the most memorable characters in television history than just for this episode. That would be absolutely fine with me. Voters have proven that they love Bryan Cranston as the cancer-stricken chemistry teacher who is forced to manufacture drugs.The season finale was filled with tension as several critical decisions were made that will affect the future of all the major characters on the show. While I really enjoyed Cranston's performance in it, the action shifted to other characters a little too much for me to think he will win a third consecutive Emmy. The single greatest dramatic performance I have seen from this past season (maybe the past few seasons) was given by Hugh Laurie in the "House" two-hour season premiere. I am not a fan of the show, so I was shocked at how much I enjoyed Laurie and the entire episode. He was angry, charming, funny, sad and every other emotion in the book plus embodies the very definition of great acting range. I found him to be very ultimately very likable and relatable in this episode, which doesn't often happen with his character. From an awards standpoint, voters often love characters with mental stability issues and the terrific confessional scenes. Laurie and Andre Braugher especially make for a great acting combo. Words just can't remotely describe how much I loved this performance. Michael C. Hall has one of the most emotionally charged and action-packed episodes ever seen on his series. In the finale, he is not in complete control of the situation as he normally is, so he is able to display another side of his character that is back on his heels trying to keep up in this cat-and-mouse chase with John Lithgow's character and even the police himself. The final scene is extremely powerful and might seal the deal for an Emmy victory. I thoroughly enjoyed every bit of this episode and Hall's performance. I have Hall and Laurie virtually tied for first place in this category, and both are extremely overdue for Emmy recognition. Since Hall's show is up for Drama Series, maybe there is more industry support for him right now. Also, he arrives at the ceremony with this year's Golden Globe and SAG Award. I will narrowly give Hall the edge.

drama supporting actress

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Christine Baranski of The Good Wife ("Bang") -- projected winner

2. Elisabeth Moss of Mad Men ("Love Among the Ruins")

3. Christina Hendricks of Mad Men ("Guy Walks into an Advertising Agency")

4. Sharon Gless of Burn Notice ("Devil You Know")

5. Archie Panjabi of The Good Wife ("Hi")

6. Rose Byrne of Damages ("Your Secrets Are Safe")

Commentary -- Look back over the years, and you'll find two trends for this category. Voters like emotional performances with anger, fear, crying and/or overwrought emoting (a lot!!), and they usually like veteran actresses (Cherry Jones, Blythe Danner, Allison Janney, Stockard Channing, Tyne Daly, etc.). There is only one lady this year with an emotional performance (Sharon Gless), and she just happens to be a longtime Emmy favorite with multiple wins. Unfortunately for her, the rules changed this year to force each supporting nominee to submit an entire episode and not an edited version. Gless isn't in her episode very much and is actually one of the minor storylines. The new rule is going to hurt her chances greatly. Christine Baranski is very solid in her episode but has no real emotional work, not even in the courtroom scenes which normally win over voters due to the passionate speeches given. She is so interesting when she is featured, though, and is a previous winner with several other nominations under her belt. I think voters will enjoy seeing her as one of the partners in the firm, so she is now my pick to win this category. If voters want to reward consistency over time, they will select Elisabeth Moss for her great work on "Mad Men". Her character has gone from a meek lowly secretary to a copywriter with more power at work and in her love life in just a few short yet pivotal years. Her chosen episode showcases some of that change but doesn't have a single "wow" moment. I think it is a very tight race between Moss and Baranski. Everybody seems to be jumping on the Christina Hendricks bandwagon, but I just don't buy it for an actual Emmy win yet. Her sexpot image will probably work against her with voters who will not give her credit for the fine acting she exhibits. I would love to see her recognized for this performance, though. Archie Panjabi is one of the strengths on her show, but I found nothing memorable on her episode to make me want to vote for her. Rose Byrne wins the prize for one of this year's worst episode selections. She barely has anything to do in it.

drama supporting actor

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Terry O'Quinn of Lost ("The Substitute") -- projected winner

2. Aaron Paul of Breaking Bad ("Half Measures")

3. Michael Emerson of Lost ("Dr. Linus")

4. Andre Braugher of Men of a Certain Age ("Powerless")

5. Martin Short of Damages ("You Haven't Replaced Me Yet")

6. John Slattery of Mad Men ("The Gypsy & the Hobo")

Commentary -- I think four men have a very legitimate shot at winning this category, but their names are not Martin Short or John Slattery. Both are good in their episodes but have limited screen time and impact compared with their competitors. Andre Braugher is a veteran actor with two previous Emmy wins in other categories and several other nominations. I really enjoyed his battle against governmental red tape, his problems with his father and ultimately his arms-raised triumph like Rocky Balboa on the steps. There is one other major storyline with Ray Romano's character and also some scenes with Scott Bakula that do not feature Braugher. When he is off screen, he is definitely missed. That could hurt him with the voters as they evaluate even better episodes. Michael Emerson is the main focus of his episode, in which he has both an island story and a California story where he must make difficult decisions that will affect him for the rest of his life. I especially liked his ending scenes where he makes emotional choices that finally put him on the right path. He could easily repeat his victory from last year. The fact that a young actor like Aaron Paul has received two nominations for his role on "Breaking Bad" is a testament to how much the industry enjoys his work on the show. I found his performance in this episode to be very powerful and seeting with rage, fear and lack of control in a deadly situation. A win would not be a surprise. Given all of that, I still keep coming back to one of my favorite all-time characters, John Locke as portrayed by Terry O'Quinn. In the final season, he played a dual good guy Locke and a bad guy fake Locke and seemed to be enjoying chewing the scenery and giving acting lessons along the way. In addition to some wonderfully compelling villianous and emotional scenes on his own episode, he also has some nice moments on Emerson's episode as well. O'Quinn won just a short time ago, and I now think he might have dual Emmys on his shelf after this year's ceremony.

drama guest actress

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Lily Tomlin of Damages ("Your Secrets Are Safe") -- projected winner

2. Sissy Spacek of Big Love ("End of Days")

3. Mary Kay Place of Big Love ("The Mighty & the Strong")

4. Shirley Jones of The Cleaner ("Does Everybody Have a Drink?")

5. Ann-Margret of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit ("Bedtime")

6. Elizabeth Mitchell of Lost ("The End, Parts 1 & 2")

Commentary -- This category appears to be a three-way battle between Lily Tomlin, Sissy Spacek and Mary Kay Place, but nobody knocks it out of the park to take command of the race. I am predicting Tomlin to win based on her past Emmy success and the fact that she plays against type with a dramatic role. She is very good in basically two scenes (one with Glenn Close and one with Campbell Scott) and is actually mesmerizing through her time on screen. Spacek and Place also have some good moments within their episodes, but I just have seen no evidence so far that Emmy voters like "Big Love" very much. That also helps Tomlin with some extra points in my prediction analysis. Shirley Jones does the best she can with the weak material on a deservedly canceled program. She also gets to place against the "good mom" typecasting she has suffered through for decades. Many SVU guest actresses have been nominated (and a few have won) over the years, but Ann-Margret is almost laughably bad in this soapy, muddled episode. I would love to see Elizabeth Mitchell with an Emmy (she deserved nominations several times for supporting actress), but she had limited time and scenes on the series finale.

drama guest actor

projected order of finish #1-7...

1. John Lithgow of Dexter ("Road Kill") -- projected winner

2. Gregory Itzin of 24 ("Day 8: 1pm-2pm")

3. Ted Danson of Damages ("The Next One's Gonna Go in Your Throat")

4. Beau Bridges of The Closer ("Make Over")

5. Dylan Baker of The Good Wife ("Bad")

6. Alan Cumming of The Good Wife ("Fleas")

7. Robert Morse of Mad Men ("Shut the Door. Have a Seat")

Commentary -- Over the course of a season, John Lithgow gave one of the most memorable guest performances of anyone in the past 10 years. He chose perfectly with the episode "Road Kill", because it provides an incredible range of anger, humor, confesssions and even attempted suicide. Emmy voters already have loved him several times in the past, so I see no reason why that will not continue. If not for Lithgow, Gregory Itzin might be picking up his first Emmy Award. He gets a real showcase in his submitted episode and is the very definition of a serpent. Other than these two performances, I wasn't all that impressed with the others. Ted Danson portrays the slimy Arthur Frobisher again and finally gets caught in the season finale. Beau Bridges, an Emmy favorite many times over, is given some pretty mediocre writing to work through and does an OK job. I am very glad Dylan Baker is recognized for the first time by Emmy voters, but it is a low-key (albeit creepy) performance and has him in the courtroom background through some of his scenes. There is only one short scene towards the end for Alan Cumming to chew some scenery, but the remainder of his episode doesn't provide much. Robert Morse is perfect each week on his show but never gets more than a couple of short scenes and some funny one-liners.

drama directing

projected order of finish #1-5...

1. Lost ("The End" directed by Jack Bender) -- projected winner

2. Treme ("Do You Know What It Means - Pilot" directed by Agnieszka Holland)

3. Mad Men ("Guy Walks into an Advertising Agency" directed by Lesli Linka Glatter)

4. Breaking Bad ("One Minute" directed by Michelle MacLaren)

5. Dexter ("The Getaway" directed by Steve Shill)

drama writing

projected order of finish #1-5...

1. Mad Men ("Shut the Door. Have a Seat" written by Matthew Weiner, Erin Levy) -- projected winner

2. Mad Men ("Guy Walks into an Advertising Agency" written by Robin Veith, Matthew Weiner)

3. Friday Night Lights ("The Son" written by Rolin Jones)

4. Lost ("The End" written by Damon Lindelof, Carlton Cuse)

5. The Good Wife ("Pilot" written by Robert King, Michelle King)

tv movie

projected order of finish #1-5...

1. Temple Grandin -- projected winner

2. You Don't Know Jack

3. The Special Relationship

4. Georgia O'Keeffe

5. Moonshot

6. Endgame

tv miniseries

projected order of finish #1-2...

1. The Pacific -- projected winner

2. Return to Cranford

movie/mini lead actress

projected order of finish #1-5...

1. Claire Danes of Temple Grandin -- projected winner

2. Joan Allen of Georgia O'Keeffe

3. Judi Dench of Return to Cranford

4. Hope Davis of The Special Relationship

5. Maggie Smith of Capturing Mary

movie/mini lead actor

projected order of finish #1-5...

1. Al Pacino of You Don't Know Jack -- projected winner

2. Michael Sheen of The Special Relationship

3. Dennis Quaid of The Special Relationship

4. Jeff Bridges of A Dog Year

5. Ian McKellen of The Prisoner

movie/mini supporting actress

projected order of finish #1-5...

1. Susan Sarandon of You Don't Know Jack -- projected winner

2. Catherine O'Hara of Temple Grandin

3. Brenda Vaccaro of You Don't Know Jack

4. Julia Ormond of Temple Grandin

5. Kathy Bates of Alice

movie/mini supporting actor

projected order of finish #1-5...

1. Patrick Stewart of Hamlet -- projected winner

2. David Strathairn of Temple Grandin

3. Michael Gambon of Emma

4. Jonathan Pryce of Return to Cranford

5. John Goodman of You Don't Know Jack

variety series

projected order of finish #1-5...

1. Saturday Night Live -- projected winner

2. Daily Show with Jon Stewart

3. Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien

4. Colbert Report

5. Real Time with Bill Maher

variety special

projected order of finish #1-6...

1. Kennedy Center Honors -- projected winner

2. 25th Anniversary Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Concert

3. Hope for Haiti Now

4. Robin Williams: Weapons of Self Destruction

5. Wanda Sykes: I'ma Be Me

6. Bill Maher: But I'm Not Wrong

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the following list includes all of my original predictions for nominations leading up to July 7, 2010

the final result was approximately a 75% success rate

comedy series

my original six projected Emmy nominees (5 of 6 correct)...

1. Modern Family

2. 30 Rock

3. Glee

4. The Office

5. Curb Your Enthusiasm

6. The Big Bang Theory

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. How I Met Your Mother

8. Entourage

9. Community

10. Nurse Jackie

11. Parks & Recreation

12. Weeds

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. United States of Tara

14. Family Guy

15. Two and a Half Men

16. The Middle

17. Cougar Town

18. Party Down

comedy lead actress

1. Edie Falco of Nurse Jackie

2. Toni Collette of United States of Tara

3. Tina Fey of 30 Rock

4. Lea Michele of Glee

5. Amy Poehler of Parks & Recreation

6. Courteney Cox-Arquette of Cougar Town

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Julia Louis-Dreyfus of New Adventures of Old Christine

8. Mary-Louise Parker of Weeds

9. Tracey Ullman of State of the Union

10. Christina Applegate of Samantha Who?

11. Patricia Heaton of The Middle

12. America Ferrera of Ugly Betty

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. Sarah Silverman of The Sarah Silverman Program

14. Brooke Elliott of Drop Dead Diva

15. Felicity Huffman of Desperate Housewives

16. Marcia Cross of Desperate Housewives

17. Billie Piper of Secret Diary of a Call Girl

18. Kaley Cuoco of Big Bang Theory

comedy lead actor

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Jim Parsons of Big Bang Theory

2. Alec Baldwin of 30 Rock

3. Steve Carell of The Office

4. Tony Shalhoub of Monk

5. Larry David of Curb Your Enthusiasm

6. Matthew Morrison of Glee

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Joel McHale of Community

8. Thomas Jane of Hung

9. David Duchovny of Californication

10. Charlie Sheen of Two and a Half Men

11. Zachary Levi of Chuck

12. Kevin Connolly of Entourage

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. Johnny Galecki of The Big Bang Theory

14. Adrian Grenier of Entourage

15. Neil Flynn of The Middle

16. Josh Radnor of How I Met Your Mother

17. James Roday of Psych

18. Jay Mohr of Gary Unmarried

comedy supporting actress

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Jane Lynch of Glee

2. Kristen Wiig of Saturday Night Live

3. Jane Krakowski of 30 Rock

4. Vanessa Williams of Ugly Betty

5. Julie Bowen of Modern Family

6. Sofia Vergara of Modern Family

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Elizabeth Perkins of Weeds

8. Jenna Fischer of The Office

9. Jane Adams of Hung

10. Holland Taylor of Two and a Half Men

11. Cheryl Hines of Curb Your Enthusiasm

12. Anne Heche of Hung

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. Conchata Ferrell of Two and a Half Men

14. Merritt Wever of Nurse Jackie

15. Rosemarie DeWitt of United States of Tara

16. Judith Light of Ugly Betty

17. Alyson Hannigan of How I Met Your Mother

18. Amber Riley of Glee

comedy supporting actor

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Ty Burrell of Modern Family

2. Neil Patrick Harris of How I Met Your Mother

3. Tracy Morgan of 30 Rock

4. Rainn Wilson of The Office

5. Eric Stonestreet of Modern Family

6. Ed O'Neill of Modern Family

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Jeremy Piven of Entourage

8. Jon Cryer of Two and a Half Men

9. Kevin Dillon of Entourage

10. Nick Offerman of Parks & Recreation

11. Chevy Chase of Community

12. Chris Colfer of Glee

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. Danny Pudi of Community

14. Jack McBrayer of 30 Rock

15. Aziz Ansari of Parks and Recreation

16. John Krasinski of The Office

17. Jesse Tyler Ferguson of Modern Family

18. Ed Helms of The Office

comedy guest actress

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Betty White of Saturday Night Live (episode "Betty White")

2. Tina Fey of Saturday Night Live (episode "Tina Fey")

3. Kristin Chenoweth of Glee (episode "The Rhodes Not Taken")

4. Elaine Stritch of 30 Rock (episode "The Moms")

5. Catherine O'Hara of Curb Your Enthusiasm (episode "Funkhouser's Crazy Sister")

6. Betty White of The Middle (episode "Average Rules")

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Christine Baranski of Big Bang Theory (episode "The Maternal Congruence")

8. Kathy Bates of The Office (episode "The Manager & the Salesman")

9. Kathryn Joosten of Desperate Housewives (episode "The Chase")

10. Julia Louis-Dreyfus of Curb Your Enthusiasm (episode "Seinfeld")

11. Megan Mullally of Parks & Recreation (episode "Ron & Tammy")

12. Judith Ivey of Nurse Jackie (episode "Tiny Bubbles")

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. Viola Davis of United States of Tara (episode "Explosive Diorama")

14. Jan Hooks of 30 Rock (episode "Verna")

15. Julianne Moore of 30 Rock (episode "I Do Do")

16. Kathleen Turner of Californication (episode "Wish You Were Here")

17. Idina Menzel of Glee (episode "Dream On")

18. Taylor Swift of Saturday Night Live (episode "Taylor Swift")

comedy guest actor

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Jon Hamm of Saturday Night Live (episode "Jon Hamm")

2. Neil Patrick Harris of Glee (episode "Dream On")

3. Carl Reiner of Two and a Half Men (episode "Warning, It's Dirty")

4. Eli Wallach of Nurse Jackie (episode "Chicken Soup")

5. Matt Damon of 30 Rock (episode "I Do Do")

6. Jason Alexander of Curb Your Enthusiasm (episode "Seinfeld")

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Jack Black of Community (episode "Investigative Journalism")

8. Will Arnett of 30 Rock (episode "Into the Crevasse")

9. Jerry Seinfeld of Curb Your Enthusiasm (episode "The Table Read")

10. Mike O'Malley of Glee (episode "Wheels")

11. Jonathan Groff of Glee (episode "Hello")

12. Edward Asner of The Sarah Silverman Program (episode "Wowschwitz")

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. George Segal of Entourage (episode "No More Dreams")

14. Will Arnett of Parks & Recreation (episode "The Set-Up")

15. Michael Sheen of 30 Rock (episode "Don Geiss, America & Hope")

16. Stacy Keach of Two and a Half Men (episode "Yay, No Polyps!")

17. Gary Cole of Entourage (episode "Murphy's Lie")

18. Christopher Lloyd of Chuck (episode "Chuck vs. the Tooth")

comedy directing

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. Glee ("Pilot" directed by Ryan Murphy)

2. Modern Family ("Pilot" directed by Jason Winer)

3. Curb Your Enthusiasm ("The Table Read" directed by Larry Charles)

4. 30 Rock ("I Do Do" directed by Don Scardino)

5. Glee ("Wheels" directed by Paris Barclay)

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. Community ("Pilot" directed by Joe & Anthony Russo)

7. The Office ("Niagara" directed by Paul Feig)

8. 30 Rock ("Anna Howard Shaw Day" directed by Ken Whittingham)

9. Community ("Modern Warfare" directed by Justin Lin)

10. Nurse Jackie ("Pilot" directed by Allen Coulter)

comedy writing

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. Modern Family ("Pilot" written by Steven Levitan, Christopher Lloyd)

2. Glee ("Pilot" written by Ryan Murphy, Brian Falchuk, Ian Brennan)

3. 30 Rock ("Anna Howard Shaw Day" written by Matt Hubbard)

4. 30 Rock ("Lee Marvin vs. Derek Jeter" written by Kay Cannon, Tina Fey)

5. Modern Family ("Fitzbo" written by Paul Corrigan, Brad Walsh)

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. The Office ("Niagara" written by Greg Daniels, Mindy Kaling)

7. Community ("Pilot" written by Dan Harmon)

8. Glee ("Wheels" written by Ryan Murphy)

9. Parks & Recreation ("Telethon" written by Amy Poehler)

10. Nurse Jackie ("Pilot" written by Liz Brixius, Linda Wallem, Evan Dunsky)

drama series

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Mad Men

2. Dexter

3. Lost

4. Breaking Bad

5. The Good Wife

6. House

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Damages

8. True Blood

9. Big Love

10. 24

11. Parenthood

12. Treme

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. The Closer

14. Sons of Anarchy

15. Justified

16. Rescue Me

17. The Mentalist

18. Grey's Anatomy

drama lead actress

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Julianna Margulies of The Good Wife

2. Glenn Close of Damages

3. Kyra Sedgwick of The Closer

4. Mariska Hargitay of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit

5. January Jones of Mad Men

6. Anna Paquin of True Blood

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Melissa Leo of Treme

8. Holly Hunter of Saving Grace

9. Sally Field of Brothers & Sisters

10. Anna Gunn of Breaking Bad

11. Lauren Graham of Parenthood

12. Katey Sagal of Sons of Anarchy

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. Patricia Arquette of Medium

14. Jeanne Tripplehorn of Big Love

15. Jada Pinkett Smith of HawthoRNe

16. Mary McCormack of In Plain Sight

17. Connie Britton of Friday Night Lights

18. Evangeline Lilly of Lost

drama lead actor

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Michael C. Hall of Dexter

2. Bryan Cranston of Breaking Bad

3. Jon Hamm of Mad Men

4. Hugh Laurie of House

5. Simon Baker of The Mentalist

6. Kiefer Sutherland of 24

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Bill Paxton of Big Love

8. Matthew Fox of Lost

9. Denis Leary of Rescue Me

10. Peter Krause of Parenthood

11. Timothy Olyphant of Justified

12. Ray Romano of Men of a Certain Age

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. Jonathan Rhys Meyers of The Tudors

14. Wendell Pierce of Treme

15. Stephen Moyer of True Blood

16. Clarke Peters of Treme

17. Kyle Chandler of Friday Night Lights

18. Laurence Fishburne of C.S.I.

drama supporting actress

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Elisabeth Moss of Mad Men

2. Rose Byrne of Damages

3. Chloe Sevigny of Big Love

4. Khandi Alexander of Treme

5. Christine Baranski of The Good Wife

6. Sandra Oh of Grey's Anatomy

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Chandra Wilson of Grey's Anatomy

8. Christina Hendricks of Mad Men

9. Rachel Griffiths of Brothers & Sisters

10. Jennifer Carpenter of Dexter

11. Sharon Gless of Burn Notice

12. S. Epatha Merkerson of Law & Order

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. Ginnifer Goodwin of Big Love

14. Amanda Seyfried of Big Love

15. Yunjin Kim of Lost

16. Bonnie Bedelia of Parenthood

17. Monica Potter of Parenthood

18. Michelle Forbes of True Blood

drama supporting actor

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Terry O'Quinn of Lost

2. Michael Emerson of Lost

3. Aaron Paul of Breaking Bad

4. John Slattery of Mad Men

5. John Goodman of Treme

6. Martin Short of Damages

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Campbell Scott of Damages

8. Andre Braugher of Men of a Certain Age

9. Craig T. Nelson of Parenthood

10. Vincent Kartheiser of Mad Men

11. Chris Noth of The Good Wife

12. Dean Norris of Breaking Bad

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. John Noble of Fringe

14. Josh Holloway of Lost

15. Tate Donovan of Damages

16. Naveen Andrews of Lost

17. Nestor Carbonell of Lost

18. Anil Kapoor of 24

drama guest actress

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. Lily Tomlin of Damages (episode "Your Secrets Are Safe")

2. Sissy Spacek of Big Love (episode "End of Days")

3. Isabelle Huppert of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (episode "Shattered")

4. Sharon Stone of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (episode "Shattered")

5. Vanessa Redgrave of Nip/Tuck (episode "Alexis Stone")

6. Debra Winger of Law & Order (episode "Boy on Fire")

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Tyne Daly of Burn Notice (episode "A Dark Road")

8. Allison Janney of Lost (episode "Across the Sea")

9. Mary McDonnell of The Closer (episode "Dead Man's Hand")

10. Evan Rachel Wood of True Blood (episode "Frenzy")

11. Courtney Ford of Dexter (episode "Lost Boys")

12. Mary Kay Place of Big Love (episode "The Might & the Strong")

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. Ann-Margret of Law & Order: SVU (episode "Bedtime")

14. Christine Lahti of Law & Order: SVU (episode "Hammered")

15. Lena Olin of Law & Order: SVU (episode "Confidential")

16. Martha Plimpton of The Good Wife (episode "Heart")

17. Adina Porter of True Blood (episode "New World in My View")

18. Kiernan Shipka of Mad Men (episode "The Arrangements")

drama guest actor

six projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-6)...

1. John Lithgow of Dexter (episode "Road Kill")

2. Beau Bridges of The Closer (episode "Make Over")

3. James Earl Jones of House (episode "The Tyrant")

4. Ted Danson of Damages (episode "The Next One's Gonna Go in Your Throat")

5. Andre Braugher of House (episode "Broken, Parts 1 & 2")

6. Robert Morse of Mad Men (episode "Shut the Door. Have a Seat")

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #7-12)

7. Henry Ian Cusick of Lost (episode "Happily Ever After")

8. Len Cariou of Damages (episode "Don't Throw That at the Chicken")

9. David Strathairn of House (episode "Lockdown")

10. Gregory Itzin of 24 (episode "Day 8: 1pm-2pm")

11. Keith Carradine of Dexter (episode "Dex Takes a Holiday")

12. Chelcie Ross of Mad Men (episode "Wee Small Hours")

following six possible Emmy nominees (positions #13-18)

13. Alan Cumming of The Good Wife (episode "Fleas")

14. Adam Arkin of Sons of Anarchy (episode "The Culling")

15. Bruce Dern of Big Love (episode "Blood Atonement")

16. Joel Grey of Grey's Anatomy (episode "New History")

17. Lin-Manuel Miranda of House (episode "Broken, Parts 1 & 2")

18. Zach Gilford of Friday Night Lights (episode "The Son")

drama directing

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. Lost ("The End" directed by Jack Bender)

2. Mad Men ("Shut the Door. Have a Seat" directed by Matthew Weiner)

3. Mad Men ("The Grown-Ups" directed by Barbet Schroeder)

4. Treme ("Do You Know What It Means - Pilot" directed by Agnieszka Holland)

5. Mad Men ("Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency" directed by Lesli Linka Glatter)

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. The Good Wife ("Pilot" directed by Charles McDougall)

7. House ("Broken, Parts 1 & 2" directed by Katie Jacobs)

8. Parenthood ("Pilot" directed by Thomas Schlamme)

9. Lost ("Ab Aeterno" directed by Tucker Gates)

10. Dexter ("The Getaway" directed by Steve Shill)

drama writing

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. Mad Men ("Shut the Door. Have a Seat" written by Matthew Weiner, Erin Levy)

2. Mad Men ("Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency" written by Robin Veith, Matthew Weiner)

3. Lost ("The End" written by Damon Lindelof, Carlton Cuse)

4. Treme ("Do You Know What It Means - Pilot" written by David Simon, Eric Overmyer)

5. The Good Wife ("Pilot" written by Robert King, Michelle King)

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. House ("Broken, Parts 1 & 2" written by Russel Friend, Garrett Lerner, David Foster, David Shore)

7. Mad Men ("The Grown-Ups" written by Brett Johnson, Matthew Weiner)

8. Breaking Bad ("One Minute" written by Thomas Schnauz)

9. Dexter ("Hungry Man" written by Wendy West)

10. Lost ("Ab Aeterno" written by Melinda Hsu Taylor, Greggory Nations)

tv movie

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. You Don't Know Jack

2. Georgia O'Keeffe

3. Temple Grandin

4. The Special Relationship

5. When Love Is Not Enough: The Lois Wilson Story

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. A Dog Year

7. Endgame

8. Amish Grace

9. Einstein & Eddington

10. Sins of the Mother

tv miniseries

two projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-2)...

1. The Pacific

2. Return to Cranford

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #3-5)

3. Emma

4. Alice

5. The Prisoner

movie/mini lead actress

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. Claire Danes of Temple Grandin

2. Joan Allen of Georgia O'Keeffe

3. Judi Dench of Return to Cranford

4. Hope Davis of The Special Relationship

5. Maggie Smith of Capturing Mary

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. Winona Ryder of When Love is Not Enough: The Lois Wilson Story

7. Romola Garai of Emma

8. Helen McCrory of The Special Relationship

9. Jill Scott of Sins of the Mother

10. Kristin Chenoweth of 12 Men of Christmas

movie/mini lead actor

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. Al Pacino of You Don't Know Jack

2. Jeremy Irons of Georgia O'Keeffe

3. Dennis Quaid of The Special Relationship

4. Jeff Bridges of A Dog Year

5. Ian McKellen of The Prisoner

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. Michael Sheen of The Special Relationship

7. William Hurt of Endgame

8. James Badge Dale of The Pacific

9. Barry Pepper of When Love is Not Enough: The Lois Wilson Story

10. Joe Mazzello of The Pacific

movie/mini supporting actress

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. Imelda Staunton of Return to Cranford

2. Susan Sarandon of You Don't Know Jack

3. Tyne Daly of Georgia O'Keeffe

4. Kathy Bates of Alice

5. Brenda Vaccaro of You Don't Know Jack

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. Julia Ormond of Temple Grandin

7. Lois Smith of A Dog Year

8. Catherine O'Hara of Temple Grandin

9. Tammy Blanchard of Amish Grace

10. Diahann Carroll of Patricia Cornwell's The Front

movie/mini supporting actor

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. Danny Huston of You Don't Know Jack

2. Michael Gambon of Emma

3. David Strathairn of Temple Grandin

4. John Goodman of You Don't Know Jack

5. Jonathan Pryce of Return to Cranford

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. Patrick Stewart of Hamlet

7. Jim Broadbent of Einstein & Eddington

8. Rami Malek of The Pacific

9. Jim Caviezel of The Prisoner

10. Jonny Lee Miller of Endgame

variety series

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. Daily Show with Jon Stewart

2. Colbert Report

3. Saturday Night Live

4. Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien

5. Late Show with David Letterman

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. Real Time with Bill Maher

7. Late Night with Jimmy Fallon

8. Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson

9. The Mo'Nique Show

10. Jimmy Kimmel Live

variety special

five projected Emmy nominees (in order of probability #1-5)...

1. Kennedy Center Honors

2. 25th Anniversary Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Concert

3. Hope for Haiti Now

4. Willie Nelson & Wynton Marsalis Play the Music of Ray Charles

5. Robin Williams: Weapons of Self Destruction

following five possible Emmy nominees (positions #6-10)

6. Kathy Griffin: Balls of Steel

7. Bill Maher: But I'm Not Wrong

8. Jennifer Hudson: I'll Be Home for Christmas

9. George Lopez: Tall, Dark & Chicano

10. ACM Presents: Brooks & Dunn - The Last Rodeo

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2010 Emmy Predictions