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presents
the emmy awards
according to boomer
Predictions & Analysis for Drama Series, Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress (added on 9/15/09)
Predictions & Analysis for Drama Lead Actor & Lead Actress (added on 9/10/09)
Predictions & Analysis for Drama Guest Actor, Guest Actress, Directing & Writing (added on 9/10/09)
Predictions for Variety Categories (added on 9/3/09)
Predictions & Analysis for all Movie/Mini Categories (added on 8/30/09)
Predictions & Analysis for Comedy Series (added on 8/19/09)
Predictions & Analysis for All Other Comedy Categories (added throughout August)
updated episode submissions for all shows and performers
(courtesy of goldderby.latimes.com) on 7/27/09
each series submits 6 episodes;
each lead performer submits one full episode;
each supporting & guest performer submits one edited episode (just his/her scenes)
 drama series
projected Emmy winner...
1. Mad Men (episodes "Flight 1" & "Three Sundays", "Six Month Leave" & "A Night to Remember", "The Jet Set" & "Meditations in an Emergency")
projected rest of category...
2. Lost (episodes "Life & Death of Jeremy Bentham" & "LaFleur", "The Variable" & "Follow the Leader", "The Incident, Parts 1 & 2")
3. Breaking Bad (episodes "Grilled" & "Peekaboo", "Better Call Saul" & "4 Days Out". "Phoenix" & "ABQ")
4. House (episodes "Birthmarks" & "Locked In", "Simple Explanation" & "House Divided", "Under My Skin" & "Both Sides Now")
5. Damages (episodes "I Lied, Too" & "Burn It, Shred It, I Don't Care", "Hey! Mr. Pibb" & "London, Of Course", "Look What He Dug Up This Time" & "Trust Me")
6. Dexter (episodes "The Lion Sleeps Tonight" & "Easy as Pie", "About Last Night" & "Go Your Own Way", "I Had a Dream" & "Do You Take Dexter Morgan?")
7. Big Love (episodes "Prom Queen" & "On Trial", "Come Ye Saints" & "Fight or Flight", "Outer Darkness" & "Sacrament")
category analysis...
This category really doesn't need a ton of discussion. I think "Mad Men" is so far out in front that nothing can possibly catch it. The show completely dominated the writing category and has a very good shot at winning directing as well. Personally, I thought "Lost" and "Mad Men" were virtually tied in terms of quality this past season (and degree of difficulty in their complex structures). However, that very hard-to-follow structure of "Lost" makes it almost impossible for non-regular viewers to even know what is happening. Having won this category before, it certainly has a slim chance at a win. AMC also has a very devoted following for "Breaking Bad", so a win by that show is not out of the question. I think the lack of a directing or writing nomination might signify less respect within the Academy. Of the other nominees, "House", "Damages" and "Dexter" were all in the running for this prize last year, but I don't believe they are strong contenders for an actual win. The producers, cast and crew of "Big Love" should be very proud of this slot, because it is their only Emmy nomination this year.
**********my projected 6 nominees were...
**********Breaking Bad, Dexter, House, Lost, Mad Men, True Blood (5 of 6 correct)
drama lead actor
projected Emmy winner...
1. Bryan Cranston of Breaking Bad (episode "Phoenix")
projected rest of category...
2. Hugh Laurie of House (episode "Under My Skin")
3. Gabriel Byrne of In Treatment (episode "Gina: Week 4")
4. Jon Hamm of Mad Men (episode "The Mountain King")
5. Michael C. Hall of Dexter (episode "The Lion Sleeps Tonight")
6. Simon Baker of The Mentalist (episode "Pilot")
category analysis after watching all 6 episodes...
For this category, let's start at the bottom of the rankings and work forward. I was incredibly entertained by Simon Baker in his new highly-rated show and am very happy for his nomination. He gives a star-type performance, but it certainly is a quiet one with very little emotion or range (at least in this pilot episode). It even made me want to see the rest of the first season to find out what happens. I don't think he has a prayer of winning with this type of episode, however. The episode choice by Michael C. Hall is a strange one since I also didn't think his character had any emotional range (previous selections gave him a much better chance at winning for both "Dexter" and "Six Feet Under"). Jon Hamm portrays one of my favorite characters on television, and his choice of episodes was certainly the best he had available from the second season. Unfortunately, the subdued, extremely private, non-emotional nature of his character doesn't provide much for the Emmy voter to chew over (unless they watch the show regularly and want to reward him as part of a "Mad Men" sweep). Gabriel Byrne really gets to open up to his own psychiatrist in his episode and even has a moderately weepy scene in his father's hospital room at the end. He has a decent shot at a win, but the show always feels more like a play to me than a TV show. I am extremely tempted to choose Hugh Laurie to finally win his first Emmy. The final 10 minutes of his episode find him at home struggling mightily to overcome his pain medication addiction. Unfortunately, the rest of the episode is a pretty standard "solve-the-medical-mystery" and might not provide enough for the Emmy voter to vote for him yet again. This is absolutely one of his best chances, though. My ultimate prediction is for Bryan Cranston to win again because he portrays the most interesting and diverse character of this batch of nominees. He has three impact scenes with lots of emotion (missing his child's birth, the showdown with Jesse in the school lab, the overdose scene at the end) plus the nice touching moment showing his baby all the money he has collected. That is just too much to overcome for these other men. Cranston triumphs again at this year's Emmys.
**********my projected 6 nominees were...
**********Gabriel Byrne, Bryan Cranston, Michael C. Hall, Jon Hamm, Hugh Laurie, Kiefer Sutherland (5 of 6 correct)
drama lead actress
projected Emmy winner...
1. Glenn Close of Damages (episode "Trust Me")
projected rest of category...
2. Kyra Sedgwick of The Closer (episode "Cherry Bomb")
3. Elisabeth Moss of Mad Men (episode "Meditations in an Emergency")
4. Holly Hunter of Saving Grace (episode "Have a Seat, Earl")
5. Mariska Hargitay of Law & Order: SVU (episode "PTSD")
6. Sally Field of Brothers & Sisters (episode "A Father Dreams")
episode analysis after watching all 6 episodes...
I thought this category would be tougher to predict this year, but it really isn't. The other ladies can only dream to have a role and series as well-written and complex as "Damages". Glenn Close gives an amazing performance in the season finale, offering rich layers of both a woman in control and fearful of what is going to happen next. Just her facial expressions alone are a joy to behold. Kyra Sedgwick has an outside shot at winning, but this episode does not give her the emotional scenes of previous submissions. It winds up being a fairly typical procedural episode that can't possibly hold up to the kind of work Close gets to do. My single favorite scene of all these submissions is Elisabeth Moss' confession near the end of her episode. It is perfectly played by her and has lots of underlying emotions just under the surface. Emmy voters don't often go for underplayed and calmer performances, though, and her screentime is limited within the episode. I have never understood the attraction of voting for Holly Hunter (except for the fact that they love to nominate Oscar winners and nominees), but she has her typically frantic, scenery-chewing moments in an immensely bland series. As for Mariska Hargitay and Sally Field, I think their episode choices are the worst they have made so far. I would be very surprised if either of them won this time.
**********my projected 6 nominees were...
**********Glenn Close, Sally Field, January Jones, Anna Paquin, Kyra Sedgwick, Jeanne Tripplehorn (3 of 6 correct)
drama supporting actor
projected Emmy winner...
1. Aaron Paul of Breaking Bad (episode "Peekaboo")
projected rest of category...
2. Christian Clemenson of Boston Legal (episode "Roe")
3. Michael Emerson of Lost (episode "Dead is Dead")
4. William Shatner of Boston Legal (episode "Made in China/Last Call")
5. William Hurt of Damages (episode "Hey! Mr. Pibb")
6. John Slattery of Mad Men (episode "Six Month Leave")
category analysis after watching all 6 episodes...
Unlike my friend Rob Licuria, I think this category is very easy to predict. Aaron Paul gives far and away the best performance in this category. His character is able to navigate through just about every emotion possible, but it is the interaction with the little boy that seals the deal and gives him a redeemable emotional core. Christian Clemenson certainly has some nice material to chew over, but his character is over-the-top and hammy as usual (though Emmy voters often love those traits). I am one of the biggest "Lost" fans around, but the show is so incredibly complicated these days that it will be difficult for voters to even know what Michael Emerson is doing in his episode. He might stand a better chance next season when everything starts to unravel and his character's motivations are cleared up. William Shatner has the advantage of a series finale, but his edited episode sure does have him just sitting and watching the other actors too much. William Hurt was a good addition to this season of "Damages", but I am afraid this episode does him no justice in range, sympathy or impact. Poor John Slattery submitted his absolute best episode of the season, but they just didn't give him enough to warrant an Emmy win.
**********my projected 6 nominees were...
**********Michael Emerson, William Hurt, John Mahoney, Aaron Paul, William Shatner, John Slattery (5 of 6 correct)
drama supporting actress
projected Emmy winner...
1. Rose Byrne of Damages (episode "Trust Me")
projected rest of category...
Dianne Wiest of In Treatment (episode "Gina: Week 6")
Hope Davis of In Treatment (episode "Mia: Week 6")
Cherry Jones of 24 (episode "Day 7: 7am-8am")
Chandra Wilson of Grey's Anatomy (episode "Stairway to Heaven")
Sandra Oh of Grey's Anatomy (episode "Elevator Love Letter")
category analysis after watching all 6 episodes...
To be honest, I made up my mind a few days ago that Dianne Wiest would repeat her Emmy victory from last year. It is a fine performance where she gets to sound off against Gabriel Byrne once again (starts out soft and gets more explosive). When it came to typing this summary, I just kept coming back to the fact that Rose Byrne gives the best performance in this category. She is also in a drama series nominee (indicating wide-spread support) and is able to more than hold her own against an acting legend in Glenn Close. Those reasons have me switching my prediction at the last minute to Byrne. Hope Davis is certainly a possibility, but I really find her character to be too whiney for my tastes. I thoroughly enjoyed Cherry Jones as the President this past season on "24", and this season finale gives her some fiery moments as well as an agonizing choice. As a respected stage veteran and Tony winner, I think she is more of threat than others are predicting. Somehow, the two "Grey's Anatomy" ladies have never latched onto an actual Emmy (even though I have predicted each before to win). I think their time has passed.
**********my projected 6 nominees were...
**********Marcia Gay Harden, Katherine Heigl, Christina Hendricks, Alison Pill, Dianne Wiest, Chandra Wilson (2 of 6 correct)
drama guest actor
projected Emmy winner...
1. Ernest Borgnine of E.R. (episode "And in the End")
projected rest of category...
2. Jimmy Smits of Dexter (episode "Go Your Own Way")
3. Michael J. Fox of Rescue Me (episode "Sheila")
4. Edward Asner of C.S.I.: New York (episode "Yahrzeit")
5. Ted Danson of Damages (episode "They Had to Tweeze That Out of My Kidney")
category analysis after watching all 5 episodes...
It's going to be really tough for the voters to bypass a crying, grief-stricken Ernest Borgnine in the series finale of "E.R." (even with an extremely tiny amount of screentime). He also has a long history in the television medium (think Don Rickles from last year) and has never won an Emmy before. Jimmy Smits added so much zest to the latest season of "Dexter", as did Michael J. Fox on "Rescue Me". Unfortunately, they each had to narrow down their choices to just one episode each. Nobody should discount Ed Asner, the all-time leader in Emmy wins for male actors. Ted Danson is the only one with no shot, due to a weak episode selection and to a much-reduced role on "Damages" this past season.
**********my projected 5 nominees were...
**********Edward Asner, Ernest Borgnine, Ted Danson, Michael J. Fox, Jimmy Smits (5 of 5 correct)
drama guest actress
projected Emmy winner...
1. Brenda Blethyn of Law & Order: SVU (episode "Persona")
2. Ellen Burstyn of Law & Order: SVU (episode "Swing")
3. CCH Pounder of No. 1 Ladies' Detective Agency (episode "Boy with the African Heart")
4. Carol Burnett of Law & Order: SVU (episode "Ballerina"),
5. Sharon Lawrence of Grey's Anatomy (episode "No Good at Saying Sorry")
category analysis after watching all 5 episodes...
It's not so easy to select between Brenda Blethyn and Ellen Burstyn, both with powerful SVU episodes. I'll choose Blethyn, though, simply because of the extra screentime and the chance to play a woman with such a mysterious past. CCH Pounder is overdue for an Emmy after many years of great performances, so a win by her wouldn't be a shock. Of course, Carol Burnett is an Emmy legend, but her role is a little overplayed for my taste. Sharon Lawrence has no chance at all this time.
**********my projected 5 nominees were...
**********Carol Burnett, Ellen Burstyn, Tyne Daly, Susan Sarandon, Sigourney Weaver (2 of 5 correct)
drama directing
projected Emmy winner...
1. Phil Abraham of Mad Men (episode "The Jet Set")
projected rest of category...
2. Rod Holcomb of E.R. (episode "And in the End")
3. Todd Kessler of Damages (episode "Trust Me")
4. Michael Rymer of Battlestar Galactica (episode "Daybreak, Part 2")
5. Bill D'Elia of Boston Legal (episode "Made in China/Last Call")
category analysis after watching all 5 episodes...
One of the most visually stunning episodes of this past season featured the California glamour of "The Jet Set". I would be surprised if that one is bypassed for another. Bringing back the original "E.R." pilot director to helm the finale was a nice touch and could possibly be rewarded.
drama writing
projected Emmy winner...
1. Kater Gordon & Matthew Weiner of Mad Men (episode "Meditations in an Emergency")
projected rest of category...
2. Robin Veith & Matthew Weiner of Mad Men (episode "A Night to Remember")
3. Carlton Cuse & Damon Lindelof of Lost (episode "The Incident")
4. Andre Jacquemetton, Maria Jacquemetton & Matthew Weiner of Mad Men (episode "Six Month Leave")
5. Matthew Weiner of Mad Men (episode "The Jet Set")
category analysis after watching all 5 episodes...
Many feel that the season finale of "Mad Men" was one of its best episodes ever. It had so many wonderful touches, especially noteworthy in the screenplay. One thing is certain -- Matthew Weiner has an 80% chance of winning in an Emmy in this category!
comedy series
projected Emmy winner...
1. 30 Rock (episodes "Believe in the Stars" & "Reunion", "Christmas Special" & "Generalissimo", "Apollo, Apollo" & "Mamma Mia")
projected rest of category...
2. The Office (episodes "Michael Scott Paper Company" & "Broke", "Golden Ticket" & Cafe Disco", "Stress Relief, Parts 1 & 2")
3. Entourage (episodes "Fire Sale" & "Tree Trippers", "Gotta Look Up to Get Down" & "First Class Jerk", "Playin' with Fire" & "Return to Queens Boulevard")
4. How I Met Your Mother (episodes "Do I Know You?" & "Benefits", "The Naked Man" & "Three Days of Snow", "Wooo!" & "The Three Days Rule")
5. Family Guy (episodes "I Dream of Jesus" & "Road to Germany", "Family Gay" & "FOX-y Lady", "Peter's Progress" & "Baby Not on Board")
6. Flight of the Conchords (episodes "Unnatural Love" & "Murray Takes it to the Next Level", "Prime Minister" & "The Tough Brets", "The New Cup" & "Love is the Weapon of Choice")
7. Weeds (episodes "Mother Thinks the Birds Are After Her" & "Lady's a Charm", "The Whole Blah Thing" & "Three Coolers", "Til We Meet Again" & "If You Work for a Living...")
category analysis...
Unlike some of the acting categories, I think it's a done deal that "30 Rock" will pick up its third consecutive Emmy in the top comedy race. First and foremost, they aced their episode choices with 6 of the absolute best and funniest of the season. Secondly, the biggest competition (and previous winner) is "The Office", which needed to be perfect in their episode choices to have a decent shot at a win. They did a great job except for the episode "Golden Ticket", which was just a mediocre selection. I really don't believe any of the other shows have a realistic chance of winning this category. Looking back over the past 40 years of the Emmys, only one show has won the Comedy Series award without having at least one directing or writing nomination (that was "Friends" in 2002, when it was the overwhelming favorite to win anyway). I love statistics when predicting, so for my purposes it effectively eliminates "Family Guy", "How I Met Your Mother" and "Weeds" from consideration since they don't have those other nominations. A victory by either of the other two nominated series ("Entourage" and "Flight of the Conchords") would be the upset of a lifetime. Congratulations to Tina Fey, Lorne Michaels and the rest of the "30 Rock" team on another well-deserved win!!
**********my projected 6 nominees were...
**********Entourage, Flight of the Conchords, How I Met Your Mother, The Office, 30 Rock, Two and a Half Men (5 of 6 correct)
comedy lead actor
projected Emmy winner...
1. Steve Carell of The Office (episode "Broke")
projected rest of category...
2. Alec Baldwin of 30 Rock (episode "Generalissimo")
3. Jim Parsons of The Big Bang Theory (episode "The Bath Item Gift Hypothesis")
4. Tony Shalhoub of Monk (episode "Mr. Monk & the Miracle")
5. Charlie Sheen of Two and a Half Men (episode "Is It the Ocu or the Pado?")
6. Jemaine Clement of Flight of the Conchords (episode "Unnatural Love")
category analysis after watching all 6 episodes...
This category is easy to break into two sets of predictions: Carell, Baldwin and Parsons could certainly carry home the Emmy; Shalhoub, Sheen and Clement will not. Let's start with the bottom half. Shalhoub has sent in his worst episode ever for the judging panel (barely a laugh or even a chuckle in the whole thing). In other winning and non-winning years, at least he had solid material and a great performance. Sheen is actually pretty funny in his episode, but there is no impact moment and nothing much memorable at all. Clement should be very happy with his nomination, because I can't see the Emmy voters going for this sort of character (as good as he is). As for the upper tier, it really is hard to predict which one will take the prize. I don't think Baldwin's episode is nearly as good as the one last year that earned him the victory. Voters might enjoy the fact that he gets to play Jack plus a Mexican soap star that looks like Jack, but he doesn't have the "wow" factor like in last year's episode. Parsons submitted perfectly, offering an episode that is an extremely funny mix of his character's personality and some fine physical humor at the end. A win would be deserved. I think it might finally be Carell's time to win his first Emmy. Not only does the voter get the typical "Michael Scott" funny mannerisms and behaviors, but he also offers a nice reverse when negotiating to get his job back (plus the jobs of Pam and Ryan). Carell absolutely deserves to win an Emmy for "The Office" sometime, and I say this will be the year.
**********my projected 6 nominees were...
**********Alec Baldwin, Steve Carell, David Duchovny, Jim Parsons, Tony Shalhoub, Charlie Sheen (5 of 6 correct)
comedy lead actress
projected Emmy winner...
1. Tina Fey of The Office (episode "Reunion")
projected rest of category...
2. Toni Collette of United States of Tara (episode "Pilot")
3. Christina Applegate of Samantha Who? (episode "The Pill")
4. Julia Louis-Dreyfus of New Adventures of Old Christine (episode "Everybody Says I Love You Except Richie")
5. Mary-Louise Parker of Weeds (episode "Lady's a Charm")
6. Sarah Silverman of The Sarah Silverman Program (episode "There's No Place Like Homeless")
category analysis after watching all 6 episodes...
This category boils down to Tina Fey vs. Toni Collette. Applegate is charming in her episode, but there aren't any real laugh-out-loud moments as she takes a new pill to enhance her past memories. The same can be said for Louis-Dreyfus, who has submitted such amazingly funny episodes in the past. The poor writing in this one really lets her down, and it doesn't help that she is constantly upstaged by her brother. What can I say about Parker that hasn't been said every year? She once again submits one of the poorest performances not only in her category but maybe in all Emmy categories. Silverman is funny, but I don't think Emmy voters are ready to reward her quite yet. And that brings us back to Fey vs. Collette. I find Collette's show intolerable to watch, so that totally influences my ability to view her performance. It is an actor's dream to play a person with multiple personalities, and she does a perfectly fine job of it (as much as I dislike the show itself, I can certainly appreciate a good performance). There is no way it is enough to bring down Tina Fey this year. Fey is on such a roll with her career, there is virtually no possibility that the Emmys will pass her over yet (even though this episode doesn't provide her with as good a showcase as last year and gets stolen somewhat by Alec Baldwin). Watch out Tina, however, because this is probably your last stop at getting acting awards now that Edie Falco is lurking over your shoulder for the next few years.
**********my projected 6 nominees were...
**********Toni Collette, America Ferrera, Tina Fey, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Mary-Louise Parker, Amy Poehler (4 of 6 correct)
comedy supporting actor
projected Emmy winner...
1. Rainn Wilson of The Office (episode "Heavy Competition")
projected rest of category...
2. Neil Patrick Harris of How I Met Your Mother (episode "Benefits")
3. Tracy Morgan of 30 Rock (episode "The Funcooker")
4. Jon Cryer of Two and a Half Men (episode "Sir Lancelot's Litterbox")
5. Jack McBrayer of 30 Rock (episode "The Bubble")
6. Kevin Dillon of Entourage (episode "Tree Trippers")
category analysis after watching all 6 episodes...
What kind of judging panel will this category have? If it has the type that rewards the best episode, there is absolutely no question that Rainn Wilson will win. He has the only submission with tons of screentime and the sort of over-the-top moments that traditionally win this category. If this panel has another agenda beyond their duty (and that happens at least 3 or 4 times each year), then Neil Patrick Harris will be rewarded for portraying a great and memorable character over the past four years PLUS having one of the biggest career years of anybody PLUS actually hosting the Emmys this year. The Harris episode is pretty good, but lacks in laughs (except for him trashing the TV sets over and over and over). I will trust that the panel does their job and chooses Rainn Wilson, the person with the funniest performance in his episode. Beyond these two, I could certainly make a case for Tracy Morgan riding the "30 Rock" Emmy train and for playing one of the wildest characters on TV today (his episode has some great inside jokes about going after the FCC, and he also gets a nice scene on his co-star's episode as well). I was very impressed with Jon Cryer's episode because of its fairly lengthy conversational scenes with Charlie Sheen and some fine physical humor at the end (plus he directed it and might get a couple of extra points for that). Jack McBrayer's episode is funny but very limited in actual screentime for him. Kevin Dillon is not in contention for an Emmy but might be eligible to win for "worst submitter of the past decade" for this terrible episode selection (very funny ensemble piece but not for him alone).
**********my projected 6 nominees were...
**********Jon Cryer, Kevin Dillon, Neil Patrick Harris, Tracy Morgan, Jeremy Piven, Rainn Wilson (5 of 6 correct)
comedy supporting actress
projected Emmy winner...
1. Amy Poehler of Saturday Night Live (episode "Josh Brolin")
projected rest of category...
2. Kristin Chenoweth of Pushing Daisies (episode "Bad Habits")
3. Kristen Wiig of Saturday Night Live (episode "Neil Patrick Harris")
4. Jane Krakowski of 30 Rock (episode "The Ones")
5. Elizabeth Perkins of Weeds (episode "No Man is Pudding")
6. Vanessa Williams of Ugly Betty (episode "The Fall Issue")
category analysis after watching all 6 episodes...
Wow! This category is very confusing for anyone predicting it! First of all, let's rule out Vanessa Williams for not only submitting poorly but also for the show taking a steep downturn in quality and ratings this season. Elizabeth Perkins finally has an episode with decent screentime (a problem with her past efforts) but just hardly any humor at all (IMO). Beyond those two ladies, a case can be made for everyone else with none of them being a certainty to win. I really enjoyed Jane Krakowski's performance on her episode, but screentime is probably not enough (along with this showcasing more than usual her character's selfishness and almost killing Kenneth a few times). Kristen Wiig has tons of sketches (including great impersonations of Kathie Lee Gifford and Jamie Lee Curtis, her Penelope character, etc.) but is beyond annoying with some of the characters (especially in the engagement sketch on Poehler's episode). She is an incredible performer and is doing exactly what is needed for the show, but I just wonder if these annoying traits will get on voters' nerves. Kristin Chenoweth easily gives the best overall acting performance and has so many wonderful moments while as a nun involved in that week's murder mystery. The show hasn't done too well with Emmy wins, and the cancellation doesn't do her any favors either. I just don't think she can overcome those outer factors. And that brings me to Amy Poehler. While Poehler only has a couple of sketches plus her typically great work on Weekend Update, it is the unbelievable "Palin Rap" performance that is one of the single most memorable moments from the past season on any show. I think voters are aware of the outstanding job she has done on SNL over the past few years and will be tempted to reward her with an Emmy, not only for this episode but for everything else as well. This happens from time to time with these judging panels (in fact, many of us feel that Alec Baldwin won last year for one single amazing scene last year -- plus for co-anchoring a favorite Emmy show and for never having won an Emmy until then).
**********my projected 6 nominees were...
**********Jenna Fischer, Jane Krakowski, Amy Poehler, Jean Smart, Tracey Ullman, Vanessa Williams (3 of 6 correct)
comedy guest actor
projected Emmy winner...
1. Steve Martin of 30 Rock (episode "Gavin Volure")
projected rest of category...
2. Justin Timberlake of Saturday Night Live (episode "Justin Timberlake")
3. Beau Bridges of Desperate Housewives (episode "Best Thing That Ever Could Have Happened")
4. Alan Alda of 30 Rock (episode "Mamma Mia")
5. Jon Hamm of 30 Rock (episode "The Bubble")
category analysis after watching all 5 episodes...
For the most part, this category typically rewards veteran actors and/or comedy legends. Other than Bobby Cannavale for "Will & Grace", the past 10 years has shown that over and over again with wins by Tim Conway, Gene Wilder, Bruce Willis, Stanley Tucci, etc. Another common trait is over-the-top, truly comedic roles. That is why I just can't predict Beau Bridges (certainly a veteran actor with several Emmy wins). He gives a wonderful, touching, charming performance (probably the best genuine acting job in this group of contenders) in a show that has proven an ability to win guest acting Emmys, but it isn't funny by any measure. Jon Hamm is likeable and dopey -- not a winning combination. Alan Alda is understated and mostly playing it straight -- not going to attract many votes. Justin Timberlake certainly has tons of screentime and some incredibly funny sketches. Based on the reasons above, I wonder if the voters will go for someone as young as him, plus we still don't know how they will react to a variety performance in this category. That ultimately leaves me with Steve Martin... a veteran actor, Emmy winner, comedy legend, and a character that I found both funny and over-the-top (especially in the closing scene). Honestly, the Emmy could be awarded to anybody in this category and not be a big shocker. I'll just play the odds and go with the "wild & crazy" guy to win his first performance Emmy (to go along with his previous writing win).
**********my projected 5 nominees were...
**********Alan Alda, Will Arnett, Beau Bridges, Albert Brooks, Steve Martin (3 of 5 correct)
comedy guest actress
projected Emmy winner...
1. Tina Fey of Saturday Night Live (episode "Presidential Bash 2008")
projected rest of category...
2. Betty White of My Name Is Earl (episode "Witch Lady")
3. Elaine Stritch of 30 Rock (episode "Christmas Special")
4. Christine Baranski of The Big Bang Theory (episode "The Maternal Capacitance")
5. Jennifer Aniston of 30 Rock (episode "The One with the Cast of Night Court")
6. Gena Rowlands of Monk (episode "Monk & the Lady Next Door")
category analysis after watching all 6 episodes...
Unlike the guest actor category, there doesn't seem to be a single trend to predicting who will win among the ladies. In recent years, veteran actresses (Cloris Leachman, Elaine Stritch, Kathryn Joosten) have won. A younger actress (Christina Applegate) and slightly older actress (Laura Linnney) have won. I would say, in general, that the Emmy voters want to laugh and want good characters. If you're looking for a previous Emmy winner, this category is completely loaded down with them (all 6 ladies have won before). In viewing these performances, I must admit that I was disappointed that Gena Rowlands didn't have all that much to do on her episode of "Monk". While other characters had some funny things to do, she did not (although she does a wonderful job in what she is given). Jennifer Aniston is upbeat and silly, allowing her to play some funny personality traits that we don't often see from her. I would be surprised with a Rowlands or Aniston victory. Everybody else, though, has a decent shot. Christine Baranski, tremendously funny as the buttoned-down professor and mother of Leonard, gets some hilarious scenes with Jim Parsons. Elaine Stritch has already proven she can win with her portrayal of Alec Baldwin's mother and even gets a couple of nice sentimental Holiday moments on this episode. Betty White is someone beloved by Emmy voters and plays a character unlike anyone we have ever seen her play before -- a crazy witch neighbor that chains up all the regular cast members in her basement. Any other year, she would easily win yet another Emmy Award, but there is one person standing in her way... Tina Fey as Governor Sarah Palin. In a performance that was a comedy highlight of the decade, she also most likely influenced an entire Presidential election. I just don't see how the voters are going to pass up the chance to honor something so iconic and memorable.
**********my projected 5 nominees were...
**********Christine Baranski, Tina Fey, Kathryn Joosten, Elaine Stritch, Betty White (4 of 5 correct)
comedy directing
projected Emmy winner...
1. Jeffrey Blitz of The Office (episode "Stress Relief")
projected rest of category...
2. Millicent Shelton of 30 Rock (episode "Apollo, Apollo")
3. Julian Farino of Entourage (episode "Tree Trippers")
4. James Bobin of Flight of the Conchords (episode "The Tough Brets")
5. Todd Holland of 30 Rock (episode "Generalissimo")
6. Beth McCarthy of 30 Rock (episode "Reunion")
category analysis after watching all 6 episodes...
The single most memorable and hilarious segment of any series this past season was the fake fire started by Rainn Wilson at the beginning of "Stress Relief" from "The Office". I just have to believe that the Emmy voters will want to reward that brilliant scene plus the CPR training, roast of Michael Scott and the rest of this funny episode. My second favorite episode of the season was "Apollo, Apollo" from "30 Rock", so a victory by Millicent Shelton (a rare directing nomination for a woman) would also be welcome. Beyond that, I thought the mushroom-influenced episode of "Entourage" was also a director's dream. The other episodes nominated would have a tough uphill battle to overcome one of those three top contenders.
comedy writing
projected Emmy winner...
1. Robert Carlock of 30 Rock (episode "Apollo, Apollo")
projected rest of category...
2. Matt Hubbard of 30 Rock (episode "Reunion")
3. Jack Burditt & Robert Carlock of 30 Rock (episode "Kidney Now!")
4. James Bobin, Jemaine Clement & Bret McKenzie of Flight of the Conchords (episode "Prime Minister")
5. Ron Weiner of 30 Rock (episode "Mamma Mia")
category analysis after watching all 5 episodes...
The old theory of vote-splitting doesn't really hold up in the writing categories at the Emmy Awards. Often, when a show has multiple nominations, one of that show's episodes will walk away with the victory. I thought "Apollo, Apollo" from "30 Rock" was one of the two best episodes of any program this past season. Robert Carlock is the most prolific writer on that series (other than Tina Fey herself), so I think a victory by him would be well-earned. The "Reunion" episode was incredibly well-written and has such a nice blend of characters and moments at Liz Lemon's high school reunion. I wasn't all that thrilled with the season finale ("Kidney Now!") and thought it to be a bit bloated and underwhelming (moreso the writing than the directing even). If the voters want to reward another Comedy Series nominee like "Flight of the Conchords", this would be their best chance to win of the night (but I really don't think it would happen). The "Mamma Mia" episode was cute but nothing all that memorable.
tv movie
projected Emmy winner...
1. Grey Gardens
projected rest of category...
2. Into the Storm
3. Prayers for Bobby
4. Taking Chance
5. Coco Chanel
category analysis...
People have been talking about "Grey Gardens" long before its debut and ever since. The direction and top-flight production values teamed up with an incredible career-changing performance by Drew Barrymore make it a highlight of this past season. I can't imagine any of the other movies winning this category over it. A historical war piece like "Into the Storm" probably has the best shot, following by the Lifetime weeper "Prayers for Bobby". This is an extremely fine category loaded with great nominees, though, when a movie like "Taking Chance" is in my fourth slot. The one with the worst chance is most likely "Coco Chanel".
**********my projected 5 nominees were...
**********Courageous Heart of Irena Sendler, Grey Gardens, Into the Storm, Prayers for Bobby, Taking Chance (4 of 5 correct)
tv miniseries
projected Emmy winner...
1. Little Dorrit
projected rest of category...
2. Generation Kill
category analysis...
Not much to say here since the category only has 2 nominees. I'll take a Charlies Dickens period piece over a war film any day, at least in terms of awards predictions.
**********my projected 3 nominees were...
**********Generation Kill, House of Saddam, Little Dorrit (2 of 2 correct)
movie/mini lead actor
projected Emmy winner...
1. Ian McKellen of King Lear
projected rest of category...
2. Brendan Gleeson of Into the Storm
3. Kevin Bacon of Taking Chance
4. Kevin Kline of Cyrano de Bergerac
5. Kenneth Branagh of Wallander: One Step Behind
6. Kiefer Sutherland of 24: Redemption
category analysis...
Predicting the winner of this category is much more difficult than last year when Paul Giamatti swept every possible award. Kiefer Sutherland was great in this TV movie, but "24" has slipped a good bit with Emmy voters. Kenneth Branagh has won this category before but not for such a laid back role as this one. The other four men certainly have a shot at winning. Kevin Bacon is phenomenal in his movie, but the portrayal calls for a measured, reserved performance that doesn't often win Emmys. Brendan Gleeson has the challenge of taking on Winston Churchill following Emmy winner Albert Finney from years ago. If voters are going to select a live theatrical performance, I think they would choose Sir Ian McKellen over Kevin Kline. McKellen has what many consider the character role of a lifetime in "King Lear", is well-respected and never has won an Emmy. He gets to chew up the scenery in this role and takes home the Emmy this year.
**********my projected nominees were...
**********Kevin Bacon, Kenneth Branagh, Brendan Gleeson, Kevin Kline, Ian McKellen (5 of 5 correct)
movie/mini lead actress
projected Emmy winner...
1. Sigourney Weaver of Prayers for Bobby
2. Drew Barrymore of Grey Gardens
3. Jessica Lange of Grey Gardens
4. Shirley MacLaine of Coco Chanel
5. Chandra Wilson of Accidental Friendship
category analysis...
First of all, I am going to knock out Chandra Wilson, who is essentially just filling a space in this lineup. Shirley MacLaine is a legendary actress but doesn't have a lot of screentime in her movie. After that, I really don't know. Can there be a 3-way tie?? Any one of the remaining ladies could win the Emmy and not be a surprise. I personally think Drew Barrymore gives the best performance of the entire category and certainly has never acted better in her career. Jessica Lange doesn't have the flamboyant personality in her character that Barrymore has but provides the movie with an excellent portrayal. As I am forced to make my final prediction, I keep coming back to the possibility of Sigourney Weaver winning here. She gets some amazing emotional scenes and gets to cry a lot (stuff that awards voters usually love). Her father is a member of the TV Academy's Hall of Fame, so she has a tremendous television pedigree. Like Lange, she is a veteran actress never winning an Emmy before. I go with Weaver for the win -- but this is a tight, tight, tight race.
**********my projected 5 nominees were...
**********Drew Barrymore, Jessica Lange, Shirley MacLaine, Anna Paquin, Sigourney Weaver (4 of 5 correct)
movie/mini supporting actor
projected Emmy winner...
1. Tom Courtenay of Little Dorrit
projected rest of category...
2. Len Cariou of Into the Storm
3. Bob Newhart of The Librarian: Curse of the Judas Chalice
4. Andy Serkis of Little Dorrit
5. Ken Howard of Grey Gardens
category analysis...
With one major exception, this category is filled with fairly brief performances. Ken Howard is barely in his movie (just a little bit in the first section) and doesn't make a huge impression when there. Andy Serkis does have a bigger and more villianous role, but many felt his performance was held back by an incredibly unusual (fake even) French accent. Bob Newhart deserves to finally win his first Emmy Award, but this lightweight movie will probably not provide the role that does it for him. I could certainly make a case for Len Cariou as President Franklin D. Roosevelt. It is a nicely played role from the veteran actor. For my prediction, I'll choose Tom Courtenay as the vain, haunted father slipping into madness. It is arguably a lead role disguised in this supporting category, so screentime is a big bonus for him as well.
**********my projected 5 nominees were...
**********Len Cariou, Tom Courtenay, Ken Howard, Ryan Kelley, Ben Vereen (3 of 5 correct)
movie/mini supporting actress
projected Emmy winner...
1. Shohreh Aghdashloo of House of Saddam
2. Marcia Gay Harden of Courageous Heart of Irena Sendler
3. Janet McTeer of Into the Storm
4. Cicely Tyson of Relative Stranger
5. Jeanne Tripplehorn of Grey Gardens
category analysis...
Predicting this category is a tough challenge. I basically have Shohreh Aghdashloo and Marcia Gay Harden virtually tied for the top spot. Aghdashloo has a ton of screentime and is perfectly cast in her role. I've got her winning, but Harden is compelling as the brave mother in her movie. A win by her would not be a surprise. Janet McTeer has a couple of meaty scenes with her character, but I just don't think she does as good a job as Vanessa Redgrave, who played the same role in the prequel to this movie. Cicely Tyson got her nomination mostly on reputation and name recognition. Jeanne Tripplehorn is perfectly cast as Jackie Onassis, but it is practically a cameo role at best.
**********my projected 5 nominees were...
**********Shohreh Aghdashloo, Marcia Gay Harden, Janet McTeer, Judy Parfitt, Jeanne Tripplehorn (4 of 5 correct)
variety series
projected Emmy winner...
1. Daily Show with Jon Stewart
projected rest of category...
2. Saturday Night Live
3. Colbert Report
4. Late Show with David Letterman
5. Real Time with Bill Maher
**********my projected 5 nominees were...
**********Colbert Report, Daily Show with Jon Stewart, Late Show with David Letterman, Real Time with Bill Maher, Saturday Night Live (5 of 5 correct)
variety special
projected Emmy winner...
1. Kennedy Center Honors
projected rest of category...
2. Chris Rock: Kill the Messenger
3. Will Ferrell: You're Welcome America
4. Ricky Gervais: Out of England
5. Kathy Griffin: She'll Cut a Bxxxx
**********my projected 5 nominees were...
**********Chris Rock: Kill the Messenger, Kennedy Center Honors, Stevie Wonder in Performance at the White House, Streisand: The Concert, Will Ferrell: You're Welcome America (3 of 5 correct)
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